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uk canada goose outlet Dalal Street is celebrating Diwali in style but are there more legs to this market rally. Veterans Ramesh Damani, Member of BSE, Samir Arora, Founder Fund Manager of Helios Capital, and Manish Chokhani, Chairman, TPG Growth India, discuss their expectations from Samvat 2071. uk canada goose outlet
cheap canada goose uk According to Damani, the markets are currently in a firm grip and he is optimistic on the trend to continue for the next few Diwalis. cheap canada goose uk
canadian goose jacket Unfazed by the highs the market can achieve, Damani feels one should rather focus on how low a bull market can go. can go fairly high. The thing is that it should not have more than 10 percent correction in my view, he added. canadian goose jacket
According to Manish Chokhani, the current Indian environment is neither like 1991 nor 2003, but it is a seminal moment as the country has moved to right of centre in terms of economic policymaking is the transcript of Ramesh Damani, Samir Arora and Manish Chokhani interview with Latha Venkatesh on CNBC TV18.
Canada Goose sale Q: What is the sense you are getting? As you pointed out sometime back on one of our shows that we are at the start of a massive bull run, is canada goose outlet jackets the bull run one third over, is the canada goose outlet in usa bull run half over, what is it looked like from hereon up to the next or Samavat 2073? Canada Goose sale
Canada Goose Parka Damani: We are firmly on a bull market grip, bull market, like I have often mentioned the Japanese bull market lasted 25 years. We do not know how this will last but all the portents are good. Let me take you through the key data points. Globally interest rates in India are going to go down, inflation is going to come down, growth is going to accelerate whereas globally interest rates are headed higher, inflation is they are trying to get it higher and growth is anemic everywhere in the world except India and we are now floating on a global liquidity of oil cheap oil price is one of the greatest beneficiaries that India will have. So the portents are extremely good plus we have a new government in Delhi that is enthused with the power of change, power of new ideas. So I would be optimistic not just Diwali but perhaps for the next few Diwalis. Canada Goose Parka
uk canada goose Q: Is it 30 percent from 2071 to 2072 Samvat? uk canada goose
Damani: That is always difficult to say. The trick in the bull market is to see how low it can go, not to worry about the high. The highs can be 50 percent, can be 25 percent. It doesn matter. In the context of a bull market we know the index can go up double, triple. So we are looking at that from a base of 17,000 18,000. Index can go fairly high. The thing is that it should not have more than 10 percent correction perhaps in my view.
canada goose clearance Q: What is your sense? Is the global environment as clement as Mr Damani is making it out to official canada goose outlet be? Yes, cheap oil for now but that also could be because there is risk aversion as well. We get these bouts of risk aversion. Will global capital be kind, are we going to continue to see a clement global environment towards Indian equities? canada goose clearance
Arora: Global environment for India will be very positive, particularly in the last few weeks where cynics were thinking that Mr. Modi will only do this and no more. We had always bet it on the point that Mr. Modi, if you are betting on him, you have to bet for six months and start getting nervous in the seventh and eight month, but with all the new initiatives he has taken, which according to me were well expected, by reasonably clued in individual into the Indian markets but this reinforcement of the fact that this is beyond just the global environment. Global environment is very conducive canada goose outlet shop but the big picture is that foreigners have still not invested enough in India or taken an active enough bet this year.
This year foreign flows into India are lower than what they were last year. In absolute we are up USD 13 14 billion in terms of FII flows into equity and last year were more like USD 19 20 billion and this is after a big event which was well telegraphed and still people refused to believe. So, the foreign flows into India are nothing but in addition now we believe that we have turned the corner in terms of Indian sentiment also. So, I think the rally is big and is going to be canada goose factory outlet long term but do not box three of us in as to whether it will be in this Diwali 30 percent or 20 percent. It will be big overall and for long duration of time, beyond a point doesn matter whether everything happens in the next three months or in the next six months or even in the next one year.
buy canada goose jacket cheap Q: There is headline hunting in trying to find out what is the next canada goose outlet toronto factory Samavat going to be like but I take your overall message that we are on the cusp of something big but describe to me this something big if you can. Are we in 1991 moment when all the parameters changed for us? In one press conference the license raj was rendered illegal or are we in that 2003 moment when we shook off six years of perhaps downturn and got on to a higher business cycle but canada goose outlet not necessarily a political economic cycle? buy canada goose jacket cheap
canada goose coats on sale Chokhani: There are two parts one the global cycle is fairly scary in some sense because the force of gravity, which is interest rates, and the world are artificial and all this money pumping is akin to the Y2K kind of boom which artificially lifted every asset class in the world but that is extremely supportive for a country like India unless the world completely collapses and gets into deflation. So, oil till USD 80 75 per bbl is great but if oil is USD 50 per bbl that means the world is in a bad shape. Having said all of that we expect the world will muddle along, central banks will keep pumping money back, you will get these corrections globally. canada goose coats on sale
Canada Goose Jackets The Indian environment does not look like 1991 where you had to reform under pressure, or 2003 where money just gushed in mindlessly and lifted lot of bad quality stocks. It is a seminal moment for India because this country has decisively in my view moved to right of centre canada goose outlet canada in terms of economic policymaking. Canada Goose Jackets
canada goose clearance sale And from being a sarkar of where sarkar is maibaap to where I will decide and I will hand out to the citizen is trying to make the government smaller, speedier so that the citizen comes at the centre of decision making and the government becomes progressively smaller and all the right moves in terms of trying to get volume growth in the economy by way of oil sector reforms, mining reforms, manufacturing, defence, they are all the right moves to build volumes to enhance productivity. All these administrative reforms, the dirty parts which no one wanted to touch administration, labour, goods and services tax (GST), all these are all on the anvil and I would imagine the period between now and the next budget to be full of drama and given the mature administration, which is playing it like a chess game rather than a big bang announcement, canada goose outlet nyc which pleases maybe markets and media, there is a real politic and there is a way to play this in a mature way, which I am very optimistic and hopeful about the way things are going. canada goose clearance sale
Canada Goose Online Q: Is the market wrong in expecting big bang reforms? At the press canada goose outlet store conference canada goose outlet uk sale while announcing the coal e auctions, it was very clear that the ministers were repeatedly telling us Coal India interest will not be harmed, not even something like commercial mining, not even something like nationalisation of coal is going to be abrogated, it looks like they are not thinking reform at all then where is so much bonhomie coming from? Canada Goose Online
Damani: If you have read an interview with Arvind Mayaram who recently became the Tourism Secretary from the Finance Ministry, he said if you are expecting from divestment to privatisation, if you are expecting removal of capital control, that is not going to happen. The government has already set its priorities out, which are smart cities, the Delhi Bombay corridor, GST, labour reforms at the state level, etc. I think the market will be disappointed if they are looking for this canada goose outlet uk big overarching intellectual reforms. There will be more incremental reforms and they will be more focused on governance but it is enough to take the market through to a very prosperous Samavat 2071.
I think we just looked through those verticals, there are ample opportunities of growth and the environment as Manish points out is so benign to India. Our moment is not to compare us to 1991 or 2003 but to compare us to Japan of 1964. A third world country in the next 25 years became a first world country member of the G5 nation, it survived the crash of the Dow and still went on and made new highs, the index went up from 1,000 to 40,000. So we are on a similar trajectory, I am not suggesting 40X move canada goose outlet store uk in the index for sure but I am suggesting a similar trajectory. If luck canada goose outlet holds canada goose outlet online us in good state and we continue canada goose outlet parka to get good economic policies, we will see a long multi year old market which will significantly change the face of this country. It is not about making money on Dalal Street, it is about changing this country. I think there is a real tangible possibility that 25 years from now canada goose black friday sale India will be a far different country than it is today.
Q: Don look for policies, policies are there but get them implemented is perhaps what Mr Modi is talking about and clearly, the fact that he began by speaking about cleanliness that clearly indicates that he has got his heart in the right place.
Damani: How could you not support that.
Q: Will you be looking for anything by way of reforms from this government? What will you be looking for? What have you seen of it now that gives you the optimism that you expressed when you began speaking?
Canada Goose online Arora: This year and since September last year we have been very bullish and enjoyed it a lot but the main thing always has been that India does not need reforms, it just needs even better implementation of the worst possible policies even if they were there. Canada Goose online
canada goose store Let us say that MNREGA, which many people consider negative, was just done efficiently so that there is no diversion of subsidy and it went to right people and that maybe you built something more meaningful than digging drenches which would then be filled up again. Let us say any of these was done even properly, I think that itself would be a big deal. canada goose store
So our first bet always was that Mr Modi because of his track record in Gujarat by the way since 1947 Mr Modi is the first Prime Minister to have had a job before he became Prime Minister which was somewhat leading to having a P I don mean in that way that way Mr Rajiv Gandhi was a pilot but broadly somebody who ran his own P for 9 10 years and therefore knew governance and administration and how to deal with bureaucracy and other groups and things like that and not be an economist or a freedom fighter or a politician or a stuff like that. So that is the first thing, but even the government has benefitted from policies that were started by the previous government.
I think the most bullish thing in future, even if you just implement it properly but don do new reforms, is UID because the amount of subsidies that have been diverted whether it is scholarships to people, whether it is midday meal, all of them can be controlled if you use your fingerprints to see whether that is the right person and whether the kid is going to school before you give midday meal, subsidy for him and things like that. So many of the even previous government policies because they will come fruition in this government.
canada goose black friday sale I think Mr Modi is a real leader to bring up things in a national independence day speech that na mein khaunga na khane dunga where everybody in those kind of speeches say how great we are as a nation, how we have been born with greatness to https://www.pick-canadagoose.com bring up such hard hitting problems that we are a dirty nation knowing that this problem cannot be solved in five years and therefore people will say, oh, he just says it, he cannot deliver it but to even bring up such things which people don bring up because they are embarrassed and also because they know that this is a long term solution that will be there, it cannot be done in two years. That is goose outlet canada why I think that if canada goose outlet sale you bet on some things, you have to bet on everything. canada goose black friday sale
That is what I canada goose jacket outlet say to the Indian investor, if you believe that nothing has changed, stay out but I don think that they can say that this is the same country as it was a year ago but if they still want canada goose outlet reviews to be cynical, it is okay, foreigners will pick up the slack.
canada goose uk outlet Q: All of you extremely bullish on Indian economy and markets in over the next four five years, but since you have your fingers in several pies, you are canada goose outlet online uk advising Axis, you have interest in several companies which are very closely linked to the consumer, even if you were not the numbers are not showing that the economy is turning, the index of industrial production (IIP) number no matter how badly it is calculated was exactly the same number in August 2013, in August canada goose outlet new york city 2012 and in August 2011, it is a stagnation that is stubbornly refusing to go, when will the economy turn? canada goose uk outlet
Chokhani: The IIP represents a lot of manufacturing manufacturing as you know will take its time to turnaround and you had this period where you had the monsoon scare then you had the whole coal sector getting back into a mess so it is difficult for people to announce new projects.
